Published on June 13th, 2018 by Josh Arnold
Dividend investors are typically concerned with a stock’s current yield, dividend growth rate, or a combination of the two.
There are many companies that pay respectable and growing dividends and also offer shareholders high rates of earnings growth. This affords dividend investors the chance to not only collect income, but also to see strong total returns as a result of high rates of earnings growth.
This article examines nine stocks in our Sure Analysis Research Database that offer investors not only regular dividend payments, but also rates of growth of 12% or greater. Stocks are ranked in order of projected total returns, with #1 offering shareholders the highest projected total returns over the next five years.
Read on to see which high-growth stock offers the best projected shareholder returns in the coming years.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #9: Boeing (BA)
The Boeing Company is the world’s largest commercial jet manufacturer and second largest military weapons producer. The company has been in business since 1916. Boeing has a market cap of almost $200 billion and had more than $93 billion in sales in 2017. The company is composed of three divisions: Commercial Airplanes, Defense, Space & Security and Global Services.
Boeing is one of 747 dividend-paying stocks in the industrials sector.
Boeing reported 1st quarter 2018 earnings back in April. The company earned $3.64 per share in the quarter, easily beating expectations. Revenue grew 6.6% year-over-year to $23.4 billion, $1.18 billion above estimates. After a net booking of 221 orders in Q1, Boeing now has a backlog of ~5,800 airplanes which is worth $486 billion. Boeing delivered 184 commercial airplanes in the quarter, 9% more than the previous year. Boeing’s future growth is also virtually assured as it not only has the enormous backlog, but management forecasts that the commercial airline industry will need more than 40,000 new aircraft, which equates to almost $3 trillion dollars, over the next 20 years.
Source: Q1 Earnings Slides
Boeing updated investors during the Q1 earnings presentation on its long term fundamentals and growth opportunities, as seen above. The total addressable market continues to grow for each of Boeing’s major business lines and within that, Boeing is growing even more quickly. In short, long term fundamentals are very favorable at this point.
Boeing has seen its earnings-per-share increase at a rate of more than 12% since 2008. While earnings-per-share was cut by more than half during the last recession, Boeing quickly returned to growth in 2010 and has increased earnings every year since, with that growth accelerating of late. We are forecasting a continuation of that 12% growth rate looking forward given the backlog and long term tailwinds for Boeing as the world’s airlines continue to buy new aircraft.
Boeing has raised its dividend by at least 20% every year since 2013. Though impressive, this type of growth shouldn’t be expected to continue indefinitely. Dividend growth should at least mirror earnings growth going forward, producing a projected yield in excess of 3% in 2023.
Shares of Boeing are expected to return 6.0% per year over the next five years. This is a combination of 12% earnings growth, the current 1.9% yield and a 7.9% headwind from a lower valuation. While Boeing’s products are in high demand due to increases in air travel worldwide, that demand could weaken as economic conditions soften. That being said, Boeing is well positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for aircraft worldwide. The stock’s multiple is rich at these levels, but investors buying today can still get decent growth through 2023.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #8: NVIDIA (NVDA)
NVIDIA Corporation is a specialized semiconductor company that designs and manufactures graphics processors, chip sets and related software products. Its products include processors that are specialized for gaming, design, AI data science and big data research, as well as chips designed for autonomous vehicles, robots, and more. NVIDIA was founded in 1993, produces $13B in annual revenue and is valued at $150 billion.
NVIDIA’s most recent quarterly results were strong as the company reported earnings per share of $2.05, an increase of 141% year-over-year. This immense earnings growth was accompanied by a revenue increase of 65%, to $3.2 billion. Guidance for Q2 sees revenues of $3.1 billion, a small decrease compared to Q1 results, but ahead of what analysts had expected.
NVDA produced record revenue, gross margin, operating income and earnings-per-share last year as a result of its significant growth drivers; this company is fully capitalizing on its exposure to several key markets like autonomous cars, cloud computing and gaming and the results have been extraordinary.
NVDA began paying its dividend in 2012 and growth has been rapid since that time. However, given the meteoric rise in the stock, the yield is currently just 0.2%. We see the dividend roughly doubling in the next five years but that should be good for a yield of just 0.6%, meaning NVDA isn’t and likely won’t be an income stock for a very long time to come, if ever.
NVIDIA has been a very successful player in the graphic processor (GPU) industry. Recently, NVIDIA’s growth exploded due to two main trends. First, cryptocurrencies have become more common, and miners who want to mine often do this with graphic processors. This has driven demand for top-tier GPUs over the last year, which is one of the reasons why NVIDIA was able to grow its GPU revenues by 77% during Q1. NVIDIA offers crypto-specific GPUs, but demand from miners is somewhat cyclical depending upon market prices for cryptos.
NVIDIA has also found out that its GPUs are very versatile in AI applications: This came as a surprise to NVIDIA as well, but the company has immediately started to capitalize on this trend by offering GPUs that are optimized for deep learning purposes, where these GPUs act as the brain of computers, robots, and self-driving cars. Those GPUs are utilized in professional visualization, data centers and automotive markets.
Even though NVIDIA has bought back shares occasionally, its share count has actually increased over the last five years. But given all of these factors, we’re forecasting 15% annual earnings-per-share growth for NVDA going forward, making it one of the fastest growing stocks in our coverage universe.
NVIDIA’s valuation has increased significantly since 2014. This was the point where NVIDIA transformed from a gaming-focused GPU producer into a company that sells its products to many different industries. The improved growth rates (and outlook with substantially bigger addressable markets) has led to a revaluation that has made NVIDIA’s shares rally. Its current valuation will likely not be sustainable in the long run, but due to its high growth rates and strong outlook NVIDIA will likely continue to trade at an above-average valuation for the foreseeable future. We see the current price-to-earnings multiple of 38.9 as unsustainable and forecast it to fall back to 25, implying a sizable 7.2% headwind to total returns as a result.
Overall, we are forecasting NVDA to produce 6%-7% total returns annually over the next five years, consisting of the 0.2% dividend yield, 15% earnings growth and an 8%-9% headwind from the valuation that we see as moving lower over time. NVDA would therefore be appropriate for those investors seeking high rates of growth, but wouldn’t appeal to those seeking a high yield or value, as NVDA offers neither.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #7: Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft develops, manufactures and sells both software and hardware to businesses and consumers. Its offerings include operating systems, business software, software development tools, video games and gaming hardware, as well as cloud services. Microsoft was founded in 1975 and is currently trading at a market capitalization of $752 billion on more than $100B in annual revenue.
Microsoft has increased its dividend for more than 10+ years in a row, which makes it one of the 266 Dividend Achievers.
Microsoft’s most recent quarterly results were announced on April 26. The company’s Q3 results included earnings-per-share of $0.95 (up 36% year-over-year) and revenues of $26.8 billion, up 16% year-over-year. Another highlight from Microsoft’s most recent earnings call was its massive operating cash flows of $12.2 billion and cash holdings of $132 billion.
As seen above, MSFT’s growth continues to come from all of its business segments. All three of its major segments produced mid-teens growth rates in revenue and gross margin dollars, and prudent spending led to a 2% increase in its operating margin rate. MSFT’s Q3 earnings were really quite superb and its enormous boost to earnings was proof of that.
MSFT has roughly quadrupled its dividend in the past decade as it has continued to use excess cash to reward shareholders over the years. We see the current yield of 1.7% as unsustainably low and expect the growing payout as well as a stock we see as trading above fair value to combine to send the yield back up to a more normalized level of 2.3% over the coming years. MSFT remains a very strong capital return story with both the dividend and the buyback, and given its prodigious cash flow, we don’t see any reason that won’t continue.
After years of solid growth, Microsoft was having a hard time growing its profits further during the 2011-2015 time frame, but after some changes in its management and a strategic shift towards cloud computing and mobile, Microsoft’s growth was reinvigorated. Growth rates for revenues and profits are at high levels thanks to several factors.
The cloud business is growing at a mid-teen range thanks to Azure, which combines IaaS, PaaS & SaaS offerings and which has been growing at a 90%+ rate for ten quarters in a row. Microsoft’s Office product range, which has been a low-growth cash cow for many years, is showing strong growth rates as well after Microsoft has changed its business model towards the Office 365. Microsoft is also a key player in the gaming industry (with hardware as well as software offerings) and benefits from strong market growth in that industry.
Microsoft’s earnings are growing at a significantly faster pace than revenues due to three key elements. Rising margins, as software offerings come with high fixed but low variable costs, lower taxes and a shrinking share count. The markets Microsoft addresses continue to grow (with cloud computing being the most compelling), which means that even without any market share gains, Microsoft would be able to grow its top line.
With the factors that grow earnings even further in place Microsoft’s growth outlook over the coming years looks quite compelling, although the company certainly will not be able to maintain a 30%+ earnings growth rate over the long term. However, we still see a robust 12% earnings-per-share growth rate moving forward from here given all the factors above.
Microsoft’s price-to-earnings multiple averaged 15.2 over the last decade, but shares are significantly more expensive right now. This is not surprising, however, as Microsoft’s growth outlook is much better than it was over the last decade. Going forward Microsoft will likely not see its valuation drop back to the mid-teens, as its strong position in growth markets such as cloud computing will allow for higher valuations going forward. However, we believe the current price-to-earnings multiple of 26.5 to be unsustainable and see a strong 6% headwind to total returns annually as it comes back down to 19.5.
Years of strong returns have left MSFT quite overvalued and thus, we think investors interested in the stock should wait for a better entry point. We see 7.7% total annual returns going forward, consisting of the current 1.7% yield, 12% earnings-per-share growth and a 6% headwind from over-valuation.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #6: A.O. Smith (AOS)
A.O. Smith is a leading manufacturer of residential and commercial water heaters, boilers and water treatment products. It has a market cap of $11.2 B and generates 64% of its sales in North America, 34% in China and the remaining 2% in India, Middle East and Europe. The company has gained market share in water heaters for 15 consecutive years.
The company’s latest earnings report showed adjusted earnings-per-share growth of 18% over last year’s comparable quarter. Revenue increased modestly but margins rose thanks to better pricing, strong volume and a lower tax rate. In addition, management was keen to point out that long term fundamentals for its water heaters remain in place and thus, the outlook for continued growth is bright.
Source: Investor Presentation, page 4
Indeed, as this slide shows not only has AOS been able to capitalize on those long term fundamentals with higher revenue over time, its margins continue to grow as well. This is a key factor in its long term growth potential, which we view as robust.
A.O. Smith has grown its earnings-per-share at an 18% average annual rate during the last decade. Thanks to the booming housing market in the U.S. and strong consumer spending, the company enjoys consistent growth in the domestic market. Performance is even more impressive in China, in which sales have grown 21% per year on average in the last decade.
In addition, thanks to the severe pollution of the country, the demand for air purifiers will remain robust for years. Moreover, A.O. Smith intends to greatly expand in India, which has similar population and pollution problems to China and enjoys 7% GDP growth per year. Therefore, A.O. Smith has a long growth runway ahead.
The company expects to keep growing its sales by 8% per year for several years. This is somewhat below what AOS has produced historically and rising steel prices, for instance, could begin to crimp margin expansion. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect the company to grow its earnings-per-share by 13% per year in the next five years.
A.O. Smith is likely to continue to offer attractive returns for years. In the next five years, while the stock is likely to incur a 4.8% annual headwind due to price-to-earnings contraction, its expected 13% annual earnings-per-share growth and its 1.1% dividend are likely to result in a 9.3% total annual return. While now is not the best time to buy into A.O. Smith due to the stock’s elevated valuation, expected total returns still look solid thanks to high growth prospects. With that said, this stock is likely to decline significantly during the next recession, which would create a buying opportunity.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #5: The Toro Company (TTC)
The Toro Company was founded in 1914 as an engine manufacturer, providing power to early tractors. The company quickly shifted focus to mowers and in the century since, TTC has grown to $2.6B in annual revenue and a market cap in excess of $6.5B. It operates in North America and Europe, selling equipment to consumers and professionals alike.
The company’s recent Q2 report was well-received by investors, and with good cause; earnings-per-share was up 22% on an adjusted basis. Revenue was basically flat as the smaller residential business saw a significant decline in revenue due to the unseasonably cold weather in the US and Europe to start the spring season. However, despite the revenue challenges, margins rose nicely via higher gross margins and lower SG&A spending, combined with a lower tax rate.
Source: Investor Presentation, page 10
This slide shows how TTC has continuously set lofty efficiency goals for itself for the past two decades and how that has helped it to produce higher and higher levels of revenue and earnings. The company’s sales generally consist of 35% or more from new products, what TTC calls its “vitality index”, and we see new products as a significant driver of revenue in the coming years as well.
TTC’s EPS has actually moved higher every single year since 2009, an impressive feat that not many companies can claim. Indeed, TTC has managed to grow earnings at an average of 25% annually since 2009, although the past four years have seen 16% annual growth. TTC has managed to grow both organically and through acquisitions over the years, and we see that continuing with average annual earnings-per-share growth of 12% moving forward.
TTC will achieve this robust result with new acquisitions, like its recent purchase of LT Rich Products, as well as organic sales increases from new products. Keep in mind Q2 saw very unfavorable sales conditions due to weather and TTC’s revenue was flat, a true measure of how strong its brand is today. We see mid-single digit sales increases as remaining the norm along with a small tailwind from buybacks, combined with continued margin expansion.
TTC has made a habit of boosting gross margins slowly but surely over time and as volumes continue to increase, that should remain the case. In addition, higher volume should produce further downward pressure on SG&A costs as a percentage of revenue, expanding margins from both sides. TTC’s historical levels of growth as well as its recent performance are both strong indicators of more earnings upside in the coming years.
We see the dividend growing at a double digit rate as well and moving up towards $1.20 annually from the current 80 cents. TTC may be an income stock one day but won’t likely be anytime soon; growth is the priority and it is working.
TTC’s recent successes have caused investors to bid up the stock well in excess of its historical valuation. Indeed, it’s price-to-earnings multiple is currently 23.1, well off of its high in 2017, but still in excess of fair value, which is closer to 19. We therefore see a modest 4.2% headwind to total returns going forward as the multiple contracts to a more normalized level.
We see TTC as attractive for those seeking growth but given its current valuation, we also see it as trading in excess of fair value. We estimate total annual returns of 9.1% for the next five years consisting of the current 1.3% dividend yield, 12% earnings-per-share growth and a 4.2% headwind from the valuation drifting lower. We advise investors to wait for a better price closer to fair value because the growth outlook is very attractive, but the price has gotten ahead of the fundamentals.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #4: MasterCard (MA)
MasterCard, Inc. was founded in 1966 when a group of banks formed the Interbank Card Association. In 1969 this group purchased the rights to use the “Master Charge” brand from the California Bank Association. In 1979, the group was renamed MasterCard and it went public in 2006.
Today, MasterCard has a market capitalization of $204 billion, and the company operates in more than 210 countries and territories around the world. It had almost 2.4 billion credit and debit cards in use as of the 2018 first quarter.
On 5/2/18, MasterCard reported 2018 first-quarter results, reporting record first-quarter revenue and net profit. Revenue increased 31% to $3.6 billion, while adjusted earnings-per-share increased 43%. All three of MasterCard’s main revenue-generating businesses showed impressive growth last quarter. Revenue increased 20% in domestic assessments, 19% in cross-border volume fees, and 22% in transaction processing fees.
Source: Earnings Presentation, page 4
For 2018, MasterCard expects revenue growth in the mid-teens on a percentage basis. Operating expenses are expected to rise in the high-single digits, which implies the company should see meaningful operating margin expansion this year. As a result, it is not unreasonable to expect 20%+ earnings growth for MasterCard this year.
MasterCard has grown earnings per share at a rate of almost 18% per year over the past 10 years. We currently forecast an earnings growth rate of 15% per year, over the next five years. The major risk to this growth forecast would be a global recession, although MasterCard proved to be surprisingly resilient during the last recession. During the Great Recession of 2007-2009, MasterCard actually grew earnings consistently throughout the downturn. The company increased earnings-per-share by 24% in 2009, and continued to grow earnings every year since.
MasterCard is a very shareholder-friendly company. The company returns a great deal of cash to shareholders through buybacks and dividends. For example, last quarter MasterCard repurchased 7.9 million shares for $1.4 billion, and paid dividends of $263 million. The company has $3.3 billion of share repurchases available under the current buyback authorization, which will help boost future earnings growth.
As MasterCard grows its earnings, its dividend will also grow at a high rate. MasterCard has increased its dividend per share for only the last 7 years, but it has paid an uninterrupted dividend since 2006. Dividends have grown at nearly double the rate of earnings growth in the past 10 years.
While MasterCard has a relatively unattractive current dividend yield of 0.5%, it can reward patient shareholders with sizable dividend increases. We currently forecast a payout ratio under 20% for MasterCard, which leaves plenty of room for high dividend growth.
Our fair value estimate for MasterCard stock is a share price of $140, and as a result, we believe valuation changes will reduce shareholder returns by approximately 6%-7% per year over the next five years.
That said, we still view MasterCard as a strong pick for dividend growth investors. The company is expected to grow earnings-per-share by 15%-16% per year. In addition, the stock has a dividend yield of 0.5%, which will slightly add to shareholder returns. Overall, our expectation is for MasterCard stock to generate annual returns of 9%-10%.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #3: Visa Inc. (V)
Visa Inc. is the result of the merger of Visa USA, Visa International, Visa Canada, and Inovant in 2007. In March of 2008, Visa Inc. conducted its initial public offering, or IPO. It raised $17.9 billion, and it was the largest IPO in U.S. history at the time.
Today, Visa is a global payments giant, operating in over 200 countries around the world. The stock has a market capitalization of about$300 billion and the company generates annual revenue above $18 billion.
For the 2018 fiscal-second quarter, Visa grew its net revenues by 13% and its adjusted earnings-per-share by 30% from the same quarter a year ago. Both figures beat analyst estimates. Revenue of $5.07 billion beat expectations by $260 million, while adjusted earnings-per-share of $1.11 beat by $0.09 per share. High growth rates for cross-border and payment volume fueled the impressive quarterly performance for Visa.
Source: Earnings Presentation, page 5
Payments volume continues to grow at a double-digit pace, in the U.S. and internationally. In addition, transactions grew 10% from the same quarter a year ago. The number of cards issued also rose 4% last quarter, including 2% growth in credit cards and 5% growth in debit cards.
To summarize, not only are consumers obtaining more debit and credit cards, they are using their cards in greater frequency. These trends have resulted in high revenue growth for Visa. Margins are also expanding, as Visa’s services revenue increased 13% to $2.3 billion, while operating expenses rose just 4% last quarter. This has led to Visa’s strong earnings growth.
Source: Earnings Presentation, page 10
Along with results for the most recent quarter, Visa also raised full-year guidance. For fiscal 2018, the company expects low-double digit revenue growth, and 20%+ earnings growth. Going forward, growth will be fueled by global expansion of the payments industry. Visa will supplement its organic growth with acquisitions.
For example, on 3/7/18, the company acquired Fraedom, a Software-as-a-Service technology company that provides payments and transaction management solutions for financial institutions. The acquisition will expand Visa’s business solutions segment, to further reach into the high-growth business-to-business market.
Visa is a dividend growth company. It has increased its dividend in two out of the past three quarters. The most recent quarterly dividend payment of $0.21 per share was 27% higher than the same quarterly payout last year. However, Visa is certainly a low-yielding dividend stock, with a current yield of just 0.6%. But for investors that are willing to be patient with Visa’s low current yield, the long-term rewards could be significant.
Visa is currently trading well in excess of our fair value estimate. Based on our estimates for 2018 earnings-per-share, Visa stock currently trades for a price-to-earnings multiple of 30.7. Our fair value estimate for Visa is a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1, equal to its 10-year average valuation.
However, we believe Visa’s earnings growth and dividends can more than make up for overvaluation. Even with expectations for valuation changes to negatively impact total returns by 5%-6% per year, we expect 15% annual earnings growth. Adding in the 0.6% dividend yield, total returns are expected to exceed 10%+ per year.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #2: S&P Global Inc. (SPGI)
S&P Global is a global provider of financial services and business information, with a market cap of $48B. Last year, it generated 54% of its operating income from its ratings segment, 30% from market and commodities intelligence and the remaining 16% from S&P Dow Jones Indices.
The company has a business model that is ideal for its shareholders, with very low capital expenses and large free cash flows. It also benefits from a series of favorable secular trends. More precisely, since the Great Recession in 2009, total corporate debt has been on a steady rise. In addition, investors are becoming increasingly sophisticated and thus demand real-time data and analytics.
In addition, there is an accelerating demand for index-related investments, such as ETFs. All these secular trends have greatly benefited S&P Global and are likely to remain in place for many more years.
The company’s recently reported Q1 earnings showed an increase in diluted earnings-per-share of 26% as operating margins improved 130bps to an almost unbelievable 45%. Every business segment produced a revenue increase, resulting in total top line growth of 8%, although 2% of that was due to forex translation. Still, Q1 was yet another example of a seemingly unending string of terrific reports from SPGI.
Source: Investor Presentation, page 20
In addition, strong guidance was issued, as seen above. SPGI sees a mid-single digit increase in revenue and operating margins growing further still from Q1 results.
Thanks to the above favorable trends, S&P Global has grown consistently since the financial crisis. In the last four years, it has grown revenues by 7% per year and earnings-per-share by 20% per year on average. During this period, it has steadily expanded its operating margin, from 34% in 2013 to 47% last year. As these trends are likely to remain in place this year, management and analysts expect 24% earnings-per-share growth this year, from $6.89 to $8.53, including a significant benefit from the recent tax reform.
While the company has an exceptional growth record, it is prudent to assume somewhat lower growth rates going forward, as it is difficult for a company to keep growing at a steady rate as it grows bigger. It is therefore reasonable to expect the company to grow its earnings-per-share by about 12% per year in the upcoming years, from $8.53 this year to $15.03 in 2023.
As S&P Global has a dividend yield of just 1.0%, it is probably unsuitable for retirees, particularly given its short-term downside risk in the event of a recession. On the other hand, the stock enjoys the advantage of its oligopoly and has ample room to keep growing at a fast pace in all its segments for years. Even if its earnings-per-share growth decelerates to 12%, it is likely to return an 10% average annual return over the next five years thanks to its earnings growth and its 1.0% dividend, which will be partly offset by a 3% annualized price-to-earnings ratio contraction.
High-Growth Dividend Stock #1: Starbucks Company (SBUX)
Starbucks is a global coffee retailer, with more than 28,000 stores in 76 countries. It has grown its annual revenues by at least $1B for eight consecutive years while it has grown its earnings more than 5-fold over this period, from $0.40 in 2009 to $2.06 last year.
Source: Investor Presentation
This slide from a recent investor presentation shows the enormous growth opportunity Starbucks has in China as the burgeoning middle class doubles in fairly short order. In addition, per capita coffee consumption has significant upside compared to developed markets like the US, offering another lever for growth. Starbucks has bet its future on China and with good reason; the potential there is huge.
The company can also grow in many other dimensions, apart from coffee. It expects its Teavana business to reach $3B annual sales in the next five years while it also expects to double the size of its food business by 2021. Moreover, in the latest conference call, management repeatedly emphasized a focus on increasing the afternoon traffic in its stores. Finally, Nestle recently acquired the right to market the coffee products of Starbucks outside its shops for $7.2B. Starbucks will use the proceeds to accelerate its share repurchases.
Thanks to the recent tax reform and the performance of Starbucks in the first half of its fiscal year, the analysts and its management expect its earnings-per-share to climb to $2.50 this year. Moreover, thanks to the above mentioned growth prospects of the company, its management has repeatedly confirmed that it has long-term goals of 3%-5% annual sales growth and 12% adjusted earnings-per-share growth. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect 12% earnings growth in the upcoming years, from $2.50 this year to $4.40 in 2023.
Thanks to its exceptional performance, Starbucks has always enjoyed a premium valuation. As a result, its 10-year average price-to-earnings ratio is 25.4 whereas the stock is now trading at a slightly lower price-to-earnings ratio of 22.6. As it is reasonable to expect the stock to revert to its average valuation level in five years, the stock is likely to enjoy a 2.4% annualized gain thanks to the expansion of its price-to-earnings ratio over this time frame.
The stock can offer a 16.5% average annual return over the next five years thanks to 12.0% earnings-per-share growth, its 2.1% dividend and a 2.4% annualized expansion of the valuation multiple.