Updated on February 8th, 2022 by Quinn Mohammed
Nucor Corporation (NUE) is the largest steel producer in North America. Despite operating in the notoriously volatile raw materials sector, Nucor is also a remarkably consistent dividend growth stock. The company has increased its annual dividend for 48 consecutive years, which qualifies it to be a member of the Dividend Aristocrats list.
The Dividend Aristocrats have long histories of raising their dividends each year, even during recessions, which makes them relatively rare finds within the broader S&P 500. With this in mind, we created a list of all 66 Dividend Aristocrats, along with important financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields.
You can download your copy of the Dividend Aristocrats list by clicking on the link below:
Nucor’s dividend consistency allows it to stand out in its sector and among the Dividend Aristocrats. There are currently just 7 Dividend Aristocrats from the materials sector.
Steel is a particularly difficult industry due to the cyclical nature of the business model, which makes Nucor’s streak of annual dividend increases even more impressive.
This article will analyze Nucor’s business model, growth prospects, and its valuation to determine whether the stock is a buy right now.
Nucor is the largest steel producer in North America after decades of growth. The company is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina and has a market capitalization of $31 billion.
Nucor was not always a leader in the steel manufacturing industry. The company has a long and convoluted corporate history that can be traced back to the company’s founder, Ransom E. Olds (the creator of the Oldsmobile automobile). Olds left his own automotive company over a disagreement with shareholders to form the REO Motor Company, which eventually transformed into the Nuclear Corporation of America – Nucor’s first predecessor.
The company currently operates in three segments: Steel Mills (the largest segment by revenue), Steel Products, and Raw Materials.
Source: Investor presentation
Nucor manufactures a wide variety of material types, including sheet steel, steel bars, structural formations, steel plates, downstream products, and raw materials. The majority of the company’s production comes from a combination of sheet and bar steel, as has been the case for many years.
Nucor has been successful over the long-term because of a focus on low-cost production. This allows it to maintain profitability during downturns, as well as to produce significant operating leverage during better times. In addition, it has worked to expand its product offerings to new markets, and maintain and grow its market leadership in existing channels. Over time, these principles have served Nucor very well, which is why it is the largest North American producer today.
The past several years have been tough on Nucor due to a significant global supply glut in the steel market. In addition, state-subsidized steel production in China continues to support high levels of supply and low pricing. However, there are several factors that suggest the company’s performance should improve over the next several years.
The past several years have been volatile for Nucor and its competitors around the globe. Steels prices have been highly volatile, driven primarily by a supply glut coming out of international markets, specifically China.
This has resulted in decreased production due to over-supply, harming Nucor’s profitability. However, Nucor has returned to consistent profitability and growth. In 2021, Nucor generated record annual earnings.
In the fourth quarter, revenues increased 97% year-over-year to $10.36 billion. Tons shipped to outside customers in Q4 decreased 11% quarter-over-quarter and were down 1% year-over-year. For the full year fiscal 2021, revenue increased 81% from the previous year as steel prices rose significantly. Fourth-quarter average sales price per ton increased 12% quarter-over-quarter and 99% year-over-year. The average sales price per ton for the full year of 2021 increased 64% year-over-year.
Earnings-per-share came to $7.97 per share for the fourth quarter, compared with $7.28 per share in the previous quarter, and $1.30 per share in the same quarter the previous year. For all of 2021, Nucor reported EPS of $23.16, compared with $2.36 per diluted share in 2020.
Nucor achieved record earnings in 2021 coming from a much lower base in 2020 and 2019. The company is solidly profitable and has a history of a fair payout ratio, which allows it to raise its dividend each year.
Nucor’s unique ability to grow dividends for 48 years, even as a commodity producer, is due largely to its status as a low-cost producer.
Source: Investor presentation
This has helped Nucor remain profitable and grow dividends through all economic cycles, while so many higher-cost commodity producers cannot stand the test of time.
Investors can get a sense of how quickly Nucor is likely to grow moving forward by looking at the company’s historical growth rates through previous cycles. Between 2001 and 2016, Nucor compounded its adjusted earnings-per-share at a rate of ~13% even though 2016 was still a year of depressed earnings for this steelmaker.
We believe that Nucor is likely to deliver roughly 3.7% adjusted earnings-per-share growth from this point forward, although bottom line growth will be lumpy thanks to Nucor’s presence in the cyclical materials sector. The massive rise and rebound in earnings seen in 2021 has created what we believe may be close to a top in near-term earnings potential for Nucor.
For the long-term, Nucor’s markets have largely favorable long-term growth outlooks. Nucor’s diversification in terms of end markets is a key driver for not only growth, but also offer some relative safety when downturns strike. This helps the company perform well compared to other steel makers during recessions.
Overall, we expect 3.7% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next five years, assuming an earnings power of $5.00 in 2022. We assume an earnings power of $5.00 despite anticipating $19.00 in earnings to smooth out the volatility and account for the cyclicality of the business.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
Nucor is a manufacturer and distributor of a raw material, steel. Accordingly, the company is a ‘commodity business’ – one in which the single largest differentiator between competitors is price.
Warren Buffett has the following to say about commodity businesses:
“Stocks of companies selling commodity-like products should come with a warning label: ‘Competition may prove hazardous to human wealth.’” – Warren Buffett
Certainly, commodity businesses are not the most defensive businesses thanks to their cyclicality. This can be seen by looking at Nucor’s performance during the 2007-2009 financial crisis:
- 2007 adjusted earnings-per-share: $4.98
- 2008 adjusted earnings-per-share: $6.01
- 2009 adjusted earnings-per-share: net loss of ($0.94)
- 2010 adjusted earnings-per-share: $0.42
- 2011 adjusted earnings-per-share: $2.45
Nucor’s earnings-per-share were decimated by the financial crisis. The company is one of few Dividend Aristocrats whose earnings actually turned negative during this tumultuous time period. Earnings have only recently caught up to their pre-recession levels, although Nucor has continued to steadily increase its dividend payments.
With all this in mind, Nucor should not be viewed as a defensive investment. Investors should expect the company to suffer during economic downturns. In addition, with steel being used as a political bargaining chip internationally, investors should be aware that the company’s fortunes aren’t tied only to its own actions, but potentially also to those of external forces.
Valuation & Expected Returns
Nucor is expected to report adjusted earnings-per-share of about $19.00 in fiscal 2022, but we assume a normalized earnings power-per-share of $5.00 to smooth out the cyclicality of results. That puts the price-to-earnings ratio at 22.2, which is significantly above our fair value estimate of 12.0. For steel producers we remain more cautious than the general market, in part due to the volatility of commodity prices.
We see fair value at 12 times earnings, meaning Nucor is quite overvalued today. The cyclicality of Nucor’s business model means that changing which year’s earnings that you use has a significant impact on the company’s valuation. Indeed, 2018’s earnings-per-share represented the top of that cycle and thus, the stock appeared cheap at that point.
Given this, using dividend yield as a valuation metric can help to inform investors’ understanding of the valuation. The current yield is 1.8%, which is much less than its average dividend yield around 3%.
We see negative total annual returns of -3.7% in the coming years as annual EPS growth of 3.7% is heavily offset by a declining valuation multiple. The contracting valuation can lead to negative annual returns of -9.7%. The yield of 1.8% is on the low side.
Nucor has a highly impressive dividend history. It recently increased its dividend for the 48th consecutive year. It has paid 194 consecutive quarterly dividends. That said, the rate of dividend growth has lagged on average over the last decade, but picked up with the latest increase of 6.4%.
Nucor would be vulnerable to an economic downturn, meaning investors should consider the impact of a recession before buying shares. In addition, given the high valuation, we think investors should wait for a better price.
Nucor’s status as a Dividend Aristocrat helps it to stand out among the highly volatile materials sector. There are very few raw materials businesses that have multi-decade track records of compounding their adjusted earnings-per-share.
Nucor has a slightly higher dividend yield than the S&P 500 Index, and the company has a long history of annual dividend increases. Nucor also has a strong industry position and a healthy balance sheet.
However, the stock does not merit a buy recommendation at the current price. And, the company would be significantly affected by a recession. For investors that are looking for raw materials exposure, we recommend waiting for a better opportunity to acquire shares of Nucor.
Additionally, the following Sure Dividend databases contain the most reliable dividend growers in our investment universe:
- The Dividend Contenders List: 10-24 consecutive years of dividend increases.
- The Dividend Challengers List: 5-9 consecutive years of dividend increases.
- The Dividend Champions: Dividend stocks with 25+ years of dividend increases, including those that may not qualify as Dividend Aristocrats.
- The Dividend Achievers: dividend stocks with 10+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
- The Dividend Kings: considered to be the ultimate dividend growth stocks, the Dividend Kings list is comprised of stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases
If you’re looking for stocks with unique dividend characteristics, consider the following Sure Dividend databases: