Sure Dividend

Article updated on November 2nd, 2021 by Bob Ciura
Spreadsheet data updated daily

The Dividend Aristocrats are a select group of 65 S&P 500 stocks with 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases.

They are the ‘best of the best’ dividend growth stocks. The Dividend Aristocrats have a long history of outperforming the market.

The requirements to be a Dividend Aristocrat are:

• Be in the S&P 500
• Have 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases
• Meet certain minimum size & liquidity requirements

There are currently 65 Dividend Aristocrats. You can download an Excel spreadsheet of all 65 (with metrics that matter such as dividend yields and price-to-earnings ratios) by clicking the link below:

 

Note: On January 22nd, 2021, International Business Machines (IBM), NextEra Energy (NEE), and West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) were added to the Dividend Aristocrats Index. Carrier Global (CARR), Otis Worldwide (OTIS), and Raytheon Technologies (RTX) were all removed, leaving the total count at 65.

Source: S&P News Releases.

You can see detailed analysis on all 65 further below in this article, in our Dividend Aristocrats In Focus series. Analysis includes valuation, growth, and competitive advantage(s).

Table of Contents

• How To Use The Dividend Aristocrats List To Find Dividend Investment Ideas
• Performance of the Dividend Aristocrats
• Sector Overview
• The Top 7 Dividend Aristocrats Now
• Dividend Aristocrats Analysis (The Dividend Aristocrats In Focus Series)
• Historical Dividend Aristocrats List (1989 – 2020)
• Final Thoughts

How to Use The Dividend Aristocrats List To Find Dividend Investment Ideas

The downloadable Dividend Aristocrats Excel Spreadsheet List above contains the following for each stock in the index:

• Price-to-earnings ratio
• Dividend yield
• Market capitalization

All Dividend Aristocrats are high quality businesses based on their long dividend histories. A company cannot pay rising dividends for 25+ years without having a strong and durable competitive advantage.

But not all Dividend Aristocrats make equally good investments today. That’s where the spreadsheet in this article comes into play. You can use the Dividend Aristocrats spreadsheet to quickly find quality dividend investment ideas.

The list of all 65 Dividend Aristocrats is valuable because it gives you a concise list of all S&P 500 stocks with 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases (that also meet certain minimum size and liquidity requirements).

These are businesses that have both the desire and ability to pay shareholders rising dividends year-after-year. This is a rare combination.

Together, these two criteria are powerful – but they are not enough. Value must be considered as well.

The spreadsheet above allows you to sort by forward price-to-earnings ratio so you can quickly find undervalued, high quality dividend stocks.

Here’s how to use the Dividend Aristocrats list to quickly find high quality dividend growth stocks potentially trading at a discount:

1. Download the list
2. Sort by ‘Forward PE Ratio’, smallest to largest
3. Research the top stocks further

Here’s how to do this quickly in the spreadsheet

Step 1: Download the list, and open it.

Step 2: Apply a filter function to each column in the spreadsheet.

Step 3: Click on the small gray down arrow next to ‘Forward P/E Ratio’, and then click on ‘Descending’.

Step 4: Review the highest ranked Dividend Aristocrats before investing. You can see detailed analysis on every Dividend Aristocrat further below in this article.

That’s it; you can follow the same procedure to sort by any other metric in the spreadsheet.

This article examines the characteristics and performance of the Dividend Aristocrats in detail. A table of contents for easy navigation is below.

Performance Through October 2021

In October 2021, the Dividend Aristocrats, as measured by the Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL), registered a positive return of 5.1%. It slightly under-performed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) for the month.

• NOBL generated positive total returns of 5.1% in October 2021
• SPY generated positive total returns of 5.7% in October 2021

Short-term performance is mostly noise. Performance should be measured over a minimum of 3 years, and preferably longer periods of time.

The Dividend Aristocrats Index has slightly under-performed the broader market index over the last decade, with a 15.5% total annual return for the Dividend Aristocrats versus 16.6% for the S&P 500 Index.

However, the Dividend Aristocrats have exhibited lower risk than the benchmark, as measured by standard deviation. This has led to much closer returns for the Dividend Aristocrats relative to the broader market in the past 10 years.

Source: S&P Fact Sheet

Higher total returns with lower volatility is the ‘holy grail’ of investing. It is worth exploring the characteristics of the Dividend Aristocrats in detail to determine why they have performed so well.

Note that a good portion of the out-performance relative to the S&P 500 comes during recessions (2000 – 2002, 2008). Dividend Aristocrats have historically seen smaller draw-downs during recessions versus the S&P 500. This makes holding through recessions that much easier. Case-in-point: In 2008 the Dividend Aristocrats Index declined 22%. That same year, the S&P 500 declined 38%.

Great businesses with strong competitive advantages tend to be able to generate stronger cash flows during recessions. This allows them to gain market share while weaker businesses fight to stay alive.

The Dividend Aristocrats Index has beaten the market over the last 28 years…

I believe dividend paying stocks outperform non-dividend paying stocks for three reasons:

1. A company that pays dividends is likely to be generating earnings or cash flows so that it can pay dividends to shareholders. This excludes ‘pre-earnings’ start-ups and failing businesses. In short, it excludes the riskiest stocks.
2. A business that pays consistent dividends must be more selective with the growth projects it takes on because a portion of its cash flows are being paid out as dividends. Scrutinizing over capital allocation decisions likely adds to shareholder value.
3. Stocks that pay dividends are willing to reward shareholders with cash payments. This is a sign that management is shareholder-friendly.

In our view, Dividend Aristocrats have historically outperformed the market and other dividend paying stocks because they are, on average, higher-quality businesses.

A high-quality business should outperform a mediocre business over a long period of time, all other things being equal.

For a business to increase its dividends for 25+ consecutive years, it must have or at least had in the very recent past a strong competitive advantage.

Sector Overview

A sector breakdown of the Dividend Aristocrats index is shown below:

The top 2 sectors by weight in the Dividend Aristocrats are Industrials and Consumer Staples. The Dividend Aristocrats Index is tilted toward Consumer Staples and Industrials relative to the S&P 500.

These 2 sectors make up over 40% of the Dividend Aristocrats Index, but less than 20% of the S&P 500.

The Dividend Aristocrats Index is also significantly underweight the Information Technology sector, with a 3% allocation compared with over 20% allocation within the S&P 500.

The Dividend Aristocrat Index is filled with stable ‘old economy’ blue chip consumer products businesses and manufacturers; the 3M’s (MMM), Coca-Cola’s (KO), and Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) of the investing world.

These ‘boring’ businesses aren’t likely to generate 20%+ earnings-per-share growth, but they also are very unlikely to see large earnings draw-downs as well.

The Top 7 Dividend Aristocrats Now

Analysis on our top 7 Dividend Aristocrats is below. These rankings are based on 5 year forward expected total return estimates from The Sure Analysis Research Database.

 

Dividend Aristocrat #7: Atmos Energy (ATO)

• 5-year Expected Annual Returns: 9.4%

Atmos Energy can trace its beginnings all the way back to 1906 when it was formed in Texas. The company distributes and stores natural gas in eight states, serves over 3 million customers, and should generate about $3.3 billion in revenue this year.

Source: Investor Presentation

Atmos reported third quarter earnings on August 4th, 2021, and results were better than expected on both the top and bottom lines. The company reported earnings–per–share for Q3 of 78 cents, and for the first nine months of the year, $4.77 in earnings–per–share.

Based on expected EPS of $5.10, shares trade for a P/E of 18.4, just below our fair value estimate of 19.

A small bump from an expanding P/E multiple could be added to expected EPS growth of 6%, plus the 2.7% dividend yield. Total returns are expected to reach 9.4% per year over the next five years.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ATO (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Dividend Aristocrat #6: Cardinal Health (CAH)

• 5-year Expected Annual Returns: 10.0%

Cardinal Health is one of the “Big 3” drug distribution companies along with McKesson (MKC) and AmerisourceBergen (ABC). Cardinal Health serves over 24,000 United States pharmacies and more than 85% of the country’s hospitals.

The company recently concluded its fiscal year. For the year Cardinal Health generated revenue of $162.5 billion, a 6% increase compared to fiscal 2020. Adjusted net income equaled $1.6 billion or $5.57 per share compared to $1.6 billion or $5.45 per share in the prior year.

Source: Investor Presentation

Based on expected EPS of $5.75 for the current fiscal year, Cardinal Health trades for a P/E ratio of 8.5. Our fair value estimate is a P/E of 10.

The combination of 3% return from multiple expansion, 3% expected EPS growth and the 4% dividend yield lead to total expected returns of 10.0% per year through 2026.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on CAH (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Dividend Aristocrat #5: Stanley Black & Decker (SWK)

• 5-year Expected Annual Returns: 10.1%

Stanley Black & Decker is a world leader in power tools, hand tools, and related items. The company holds the top global position in tools and storage sales. Stanley Black & Decker is second in the world in the areas of commercial electronic security and engineered fastening.

You can seen an overview of the company’s third-quarter performance in the image below:

Source: Investor Presentation

Revenue grew 9.2% to $4.3 billion, matching estimates. Adjusted earnings-per-share of $2.77 compared unfavorably to adjusted earnings-per-share of $2.89 in the prior year, but came in $0.30 above expectations.

The stock has a 1.7% dividend yield, and we expect 8% annual EPS growth. With a small boost from an expanding P/E multiple, total returns are expected to reach 10.1% per year.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on SWK (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Dividend Aristocrat #4: Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)

• 5-year Expected Annual Returns: 10.4%

Archer–Daniels–Midland is the largest publicly traded farmland product company in the United States. The company‘s businesses include the processing of cereal grains and oilseeds and agricultural storage and transportation.

The company reported strong second-quarter earnings results. Adjusted earnings-per-share increased by 9% year-over-year, while adjusted operating profit increased 18%.

Source: Investor Presentation

ADM stock trades for a P/E ratio of 12.5, below our fair value estimate of 15. In addition, we expect 6% annual EPS growth while the stock has a 2.4% dividend yield. Total returns are expected to reach 10.4% per year over the next five years.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on ADM (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Dividend Aristocrat #3: Becton, Dickinson and Company (BDX)

• 5-year Expected Annual Returns: 11.0%

Becton, Dickinson & Company is a global leader in the medical supply industry. The company was founded in 1897 and today operates in 190 countries, generating annual sales above $19 billion. Nearly half the company’s revenue comes from outside the U.S.

The company operates three segments—the Medical Division includes needles for drug delivery systems, and surgical blades. The Life Sciences division provides products for the collection and transportation of diagnostic specimens. Lastly, the Intervention segment includes several of the products produced by what used to be Bard.

Source: Investor Presentation

Shares trade for a P/E of 18, just below our fair value estimate. The stock could generate total returns of 11.0% per year, based on expected annual EPS growth of 10% and the 1.4% dividend yield.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on BDX (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Dividend Aristocrat #2: Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA)

• 5-year Expected Annual Returns: 11.1%

Walgreens Boots Alliance is the largest retail pharmacy in both the United States and Europe. Through its flagship Walgreens business and other business ventures, the company has a presence in more than 25 countries, employs more than 450,000 people and has more than 21,000 stores.

An overview of Walgreens’ most recent quarterly performance can be seen in the image below:

Source: Investor Presentation

WBA shares trade for a 2021 price-to-earnings ratio of 9, which is below our fair value estimate of 10. In addition, we expect 5% annual EPS growth, while the stock has a 4.1% dividend yield. Total returns are expected to reach 11.1% over the next five years.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on WBA (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

Dividend Aristocrat #1: AT&T Inc. (T)

• 5-year Expected Annual Returns: 15.8%

AT&T is a telecommunications giant, as its core Communications segment provides mobile, broadband and video to 100 million U.S. consumers and 3 million businesses.

On October 21st, 2021, AT&T reported Q3 2021 results for the period ending September 30th, 2021. For the quarter the company generated $39.9 billion in revenue, down –5.7% from $42.3 billion in Q3 2020, reflecting the separation of the U.S. video business, other divested businesses and lower Business Wireline revenues.

On an adjusted basis, earnings–per–share equaled $0.87 compared to $0.76 in the year ago quarter. AT&T’s net debt–to–EBITDA ratio was 3.17x.

Source: Investor Presentation

With a P/E below 10, AT&T is undervalued against our fair value estimate of 11. The combination of 3% expected EPS growth and the 8.2% dividend yield lead to total expected returns of 15.8% per year over the next five years.

Click here to download our most recent Sure Analysis report on AT&T (preview of page 1 of 3 shown below):

The Dividend Aristocrats In Focus Analysis Series

You can see analysis on every single Dividend Aristocrat below. Each is sorted by GICS sectors and listed in alphabetical order by name. The newest Sure Analysis Research Database report for each security is included as well, with its date in brackets.

Consumer Staples

• Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) | [8/18/21]
• Amcor (AMCR) | [9/6/21]
• Brown-Forman (BF-B) | [9/14/21]
• Colgate-Palmolive (CL) | [8/7/21]
• Clorox (CLX) | [8/7/21]
• Coca-Cola (KO) | [7/23/21]
• Hormel Foods (HRL) | [9/5/21]
• Kimberly-Clark (KMB) | [10/30/21]
• McCormick & Company (MKC) | [10/1/21]
• PepsiCo (PEP) | [10/5/21]
• Procter & Gamble (PG) [8/4/21]
• Sysco Corporation (SYY) [9/6/21]
• Walmart (WMT) | [8/20/21]
• Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) | [10/14/21]

Industrials

• A.O. Smith (AOS) | [8/9/21]
• Cintas (CTAS) | [10/22/21]
• Dover (DOV) | [10/19/21]
• Emerson Electric (EMR) | [8/19/21]
• Expeditors International (EXPD) | [7/24/21]
• Illinois Tool Works (ITW) | [8/5/21]
• 3M (MMM) | [10/27/21]
• Pentair (PNR) | [8/1/21]
• Roper Technologies (ROP) | [10/25/21]
• Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) | [10/31/21]
• W.W. Grainger (GWW) | [8/4/21]
• General Dynamics (GD) | [8/15/21]
• Caterpillar (CAT) | [8/6/21]

Health Care

• Abbott Laboratories (ABT) | [10/20/21]
• AbbVie (ABBV) | [8/2/21]
• Becton, Dickinson & Company (BDX) | [8/11/21]
• Cardinal Health (CAH) | [8/9/21]
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) | [10/20/21]
• Medtronic (MDT) | [8/24/21]
• West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) | [7/29/21]

Consumer Discretionary

• Genuine Parts Company (GPC) | [10/30/21]
• Leggett & Platt (LEG) | [8/9/21]
• Lowe’s Companies (LOW) | [8/26/21]
• McDonald’s (MCD) | [10/28/21]
• Target (TGT) | [8/21/21]
• V.F. Corporation (VFC) | [8/6/21]

Financials

• Aflac (AFL) | [8/2/21]
• Cincinnati Financial (CINF) | [8/1/21]
• Franklin Resources (BEN) | [8/6/21]
• S&P Global (SPGI) | [8/13/21]
• T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) | [8/3/21]
• Chubb (CB) | [8/5/21]
• People’s United Financial (PBCT) | [10/26/21]

Materials

• Air Products and Chemicals (APD) | [8/25/21]
• Albemarle (ALB) | [8/9/21]
• Ecolab (ECL) | [8/16/21]
• PPG Industries (PPG) | [10/21/21]
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW) | [10/26/21]
• Nucor (NUE) | [8/7/21]
• Linde (LIN) | [8/16/21]

Energy

• Chevron (CVX) | [8/17/21]
• Exxon Mobil (XOM) | [8/17/21]

Information Technology

• Automatic Data Processing (ADP) | [7/31/21]
• International Business Machines (IBM) | [10/25/21]

Real Estate

• Essex Property Trust (ESS) | [8/3/21]
• Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT) | [8/13/21]
• Realty Income (O) | [8/7/21]

Telecommunication Services

• AT&T (T) | [10/21/21]

Utilities

• Atmos Energy (ATO) | [8/19/21]
• Consolidated Edison (ED) | [8/14/21]
• NextEra Energy (NEE) | [7/24/21]

Looking for no-fee DRIP Dividend Aristocrats? Click here to read an article examining all 15 no-fee DRIP Dividend Aristocrats in detail.

Historical Dividend Aristocrats List
(1989 – 2020)

The image below shows the history of the Dividend Aristocrats Index from 1989 through 2020:

Note: CL, GPC, and NUE were all removed and re-added to the Dividend Aristocrats Index through the historical period analyzed above. We are unsure as to why. Companies created via a spin-off (like AbbVie) can be Dividend Aristocrats with less than 25 years of rising dividends if the parent company was a Dividend Aristocrat.

 

This information was compiled from the following sources:

• 1989 – 1991: Dividend Growth Investor
• 1992 – 2015: NOBL Index Historical Constituents
• 2016: Sure Dividend update
• 2017 – 2021: Data from S&P press releases

Other Dividend Lists & Final Thoughts

The Dividend Aristocrats list is not the only way to quickly screen for stocks that regularly pay rising dividends.

• The Dividend Achievers List is comprised of more than 250 stocks with 10+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
• The Dividend Kings List is even more exclusive than the Dividend Aristocrats. It is comprised of 32 stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
• The Blue Chip Stocks List: stocks that qualify as Dividend Achievers, Dividend Aristocrats, and/or Dividend Kings
• The High Dividend Stocks List: stocks that appeal to investors interested in the highest yields of 5% or more.
• The Monthly Dividend Stocks List: stocks that pay dividends every month, for 12 dividend payments per year.
• The Dividend Champions List: stocks that have increased their dividends for 25+ consecutive years but do not qualify as Dividend Aristocrats.
• The Dividend Contenders List: 10-24 consecutive years of dividend increases.
• The Dividend Challengers List: 5-9 consecutive years of dividend increases.

There is nothing magical about the Dividend Aristocrats. They are ‘just’ a collection of high quality shareholder friendly stocks that have strong competitive advantages.

Purchasing these types of stocks at fair or better prices and holding for the long-run will likely result in favorable long-term performance.

You have a choice in what type of business you buy into. You can buy into the mediocre, or the excellent.

Often, excellent businesses are not more expensive (based on their price-to-earnings ratio) than mediocre businesses.

“When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever.”

– Warren Buffett

Disclaimer: Sure Dividend is not affiliated with S&P Global in any way. S&P Global owns and maintains The Dividend Aristocrats Index. The information in this article and downloadable spreadsheet is based on Sure Dividend’s own review, summary, and analysis of the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) and other sources, and is meant to help individual investors better understand this ETF and the index upon which it is based. None of the information in this article or spreadsheet is official data from S&P Global. Consult S&P Global for official information.