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Dividend Aristocrats In Focus Part 36: Stanley Black & Decker


Updated on February 8th, 2019 by Nate Parsh

Investors looking for dividend income and sustainable growth should start with the Dividend Aristocrats, an exclusive group of companies that have raised their dividends for 25+ consecutive years.

 

There are only 57 Dividend Aristocrats. This article will review diversified industrial company Stanley Black & Decker (SWK).

Stanley Black & Decker has an amazing track record of dividend growth. In 2018, Stanley Black & Decker increased its dividend for the 51st year in a row. Today, the company’s dividend appears very safe relative to its underlying fundamentals:

Last year, it joined the ranks of an even more exclusive club than the Dividend Aristocrats. Stanley Black & Decker is now a member of the Dividend Kings, a group of just 24 companies with 50+ consecutive years of dividend increases.

Put simply, the Dividend Kings are the best of the best when it comes to dividend growth stocks. This article will discuss the qualities that have made Stanley Black & Decker a Dividend King.

Business Overview

Stanley Black & Decker is the result of Stanley Works’ $3.5 billion acquisition of Black & Decker in 2009. Stanley Works and Black & Decker were both named after their respective founders.

Stanley Works was formed in 1843, when Frederick Stanley started a small shop in New Britain, Connecticut, where he manufactured bolts, hinges, and other hardware. His products developed a reputation for their quality.

Meanwhile, Black & Decker was started by Duncan Black and Alonzo Decker in 1910. Like Stanley, they opened a small hardware shop. In 1916, they obtained a patent to manufacture the world’s first portable power tool.

Over the next 174 years, Stanley Black & Decker has steadily grown into one of the world’s largest industrial products manufacturers.

SWK Overview

Source: Investor Presentation

Its main products include hand tools, power tools, and related accessories. It also produces electronic security solutions, healthcare solutions, engineered fastening systems, and more.

Revenue growth has accelerated over the past 16 years. Today, Stanley Black & Decker has a market capitalization of $19.3 billion, and annual sales of more than $14 billion. It operates three business segments, which are Tools & Storage, Security, and Industrial products.

In October of last year, Stanley Black & Decker announced that products from its hand tools and storage portfolio will be available exclusively at Home Depot (HD). The company has produced excellent growth rates in recent years, due in large part to an aggressive acquisition strategy.

Growth Prospects

Stanley Black & Decker’s growth prospects are promising. The company had a solid 2018. The company earned $2.11 per share in the fourth quarter of 2018, beating estimates by a penny, but declining 3.2% from the prior year. Revenue improved 5% to $3.6 billion, also beating estimates.

Sales volumes increased 5% while acquisitions added 2% and price increases contributed 1% to quarterly results. Growth was partially offset by a 3% currency translation headwind. In addition, tariffs and increased commodity costs were a headwind during the quarter.

Earnings-per-share for the full year came to $8.15, a nearly 10% increase from 2017. Revenue grew 8% to $14 billion, including 5% organic growth in 2018.

The Tools & Storage and Industrial segments led the way last quarter. Tools & Storage revenue increased 4% in the fourth quarter, along with 14% growth in industrial product revenue. This more than offset a 1% decline in security product revenue.

Acquisitions have played a key role in the company’s growth in recent years, and remain a critical component of the company’s growth strategy going forward.

SWK Growth

Source: Investor Presentation

Recent acquisitions have helped shape Stanley Black & Decker’s product portfolio. For example, in 2017 Stanley Black & Decker closed on the $1.95 billion acquisition of the Tools business of Newell Brands. This acquisition strengthened the company’s foothold in tools, and added the high-quality Irwin and Lenox brands to the product portfolio.

Not only that, but in 2017 Stanley Black & Decker also acquired the legendary Craftsman brand from Sears Holdings (SHLD) for $900 million. Both deals were immediately accretive to the company’s bottom line in 2017. The Craftsman brand is expected to add $1 billion in revenue by 2021.

Acquisitions continued in 2018. Last August (8/7/18) Stanley Black & Decker acquired International Equipment Solutions Attachments Group, or IES Attachments, for $690 million. Once approved, this acquisition will add to Stanley Black & Decker’s presence in industrial markets.

IES Attachments provides heavy equipment attachments tools for off highway applications. This division provides leading brands such as Paladin, Genesis and Pengo. Almost 60% of revenues for IES Attachments is related to aftermarket services.

Not yet done with acqusitions for the year, Stanley Black & Decker took a 20% stake in MTD Products for $234 million. MTD Products is a privately held manufacturer of outdoor power equipment. Stanley Black & Decker has the option to acquire the remaining 80% of MTD Products starting July 1st, 2021. The company expects that this investment could add as much as $0.10 to earnings-per-share in 2019.

For 2019, Stanley Black & Decker expects 4% organic revenue growth. Adjusted earnings-per-share are expected in a range of $8.45-$8.55. At the midpoint, this would represent 5% growth from the previous year.

The market reacted negatively to the company’s guidance, sending shares lower by 16%. This reaction was likely due to tariffs, commodity inflation and currency translation decreasing earnings-per-share results by as much as $1.00 in 2019. It should be noted that shares of Stanley Black & Decker have already recovered $11, or 9.4%, since the last financial release.

Stanley Black & Decker is attempting to offset this decline with cost controls. The company is removing costs from its business, and with acquisition-related cost synergies, should see a positive benefit of $1.05 to earnings this year.

Looking longer-term, management has a plan to continue growing into the next decade. By 2022, Stanley Black & Decker expects revenue to approach $20 billion, driven by a mix of organic growth, and growth from acquisitions.

The company plans to invest more heavily in its Industrial segment, which is on track to generate 25% of total revenue by 2022.

Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance

Stanley Black & Decker’s main competitive advantages are its brand portfolio, and global scale. Innovation and scalability are at the core of the company’s growth strategy.

It has a leadership position in each of its three product categories. Its brand strength gives the company pricing power, which leads to high profit margins.

And, it is relatively easy for the company to scale up its brands, thanks to distribution efficiencies.

To retain these competitive advantages, Stanley Black & Decker is constantly investing in product innovation. The company’s research & development expense is as follows:

That said, Stanley Black & Decker is not immune from recessions. Earnings declined significantly in 2008 and 2009. As an industrial manufacturer, Stanley Black & Decker is reliant on a strong economy and a financially-healthy consumer.

Stanley Black & Decker’s earnings-per-share during the Great Recession are below:

Despite the steep decline in earnings from 2007-2009, Stanley Black & Decker recovered just as quickly. Earnings-per-share increased another 32% in 2011, and reached a new high. Earnings have continued to grow in the years since.

Valuation & Expected Returns

Using the current share price of $128 and expected earnings-per-share for 2019 of $8.55, Stanley Black & Decker has a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9. This is below the ten-year average valuation of 15.7 that the stock has held since 2008.

A breakdown of Stanley Black & Decker’s historical valuation multiples can be seen in the table below:

SWK Valuation

Note: Stanley Black & Decker’s current price-to-earnings ratio is 14.9.

Stanley Black & Decker stock appears to be slightly undervalued, with a little room for further expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio. If the stock’s valuation were to expand to met its historical average by 2024, investors would see an additional 1.1% added to annual returns over this period of time.

Going forward, returns will be comprised of earnings growth and dividends. In the past 10 years, Stanley Black & Decker increased earnings-per-share by 8% compounded annually. Due to organic growth and acquisitions, we feel that this growth rate is sustainable.

The stock has a current dividend yield of 2.1%. Based on this, total returns would reach approximately 11. 2% per year, consisting of valuation multiple expansion, earnings growth, and dividends. This is a satisfactory rate of return and shows Stanley Black & Decker earns a buy recommendation.

Final Thoughts

Stanley Black & Decker is not a high-yield stock, but it has all of the qualities of a strong dividend growth stock. It has a top position in the industry, strong cash flow, and durable competitive advantages.

The company has a positive growth outlook, which bodes well for the dividend. The stock appears slightly undervalued today, and it is very likely Stanley Black & Decker will continue to hike its dividend each year for the foreseeable future.

And, the stock is still expected to produce total returns of up to 10% per year over the next five years. This makes Stanley Black & Decker an attractive stock for long-term dividend growth investors.

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