Updated on August 14th, 2026 by Nikolaos Sismanis
In the world of investing, volatility matters. Investors are reminded of this every time there is a downturn in the broader market and individual stocks that are more volatile than others experience enormous swings in price.
Volatility is a proxy for risk; more volatility generally means a riskier portfolio. The volatility of a security or portfolio against a benchmark is called Beta.
Beta is measured via a formula that calculates the price risk of a security or portfolio against a benchmark, which is typically the broader market as measured by the S&P 500.
Here’s how to read stock betas:
- A beta of 1.0 means the stock moves equally with the S&P 500
- A beta of 2.0 means the stock moves twice as much as the S&P 500
- A beta of 0.0 means the stocks moves don’t correlate with the S&P 500
- A beta of -1.0 means the stock moves precisely opposite the S&P 500
Interestingly, low beta stocks have historically outperformed the market… But more on that later.
You can download a spreadsheet of the 100 lowest beta S&P stocks (along with important financial metrics like price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields) below:
This article will discuss beta more thoroughly, why low-beta stocks tend to outperform, and provide a discussion of the 10 lowest-beta dividend stocks in the Sure Analysis Research Database.
The table of contents below allows for easy navigation.
Table of Contents
- The Evidence for Low Beta Outperformance
- How To Calculate Beta
- Beta & The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
- Analysis On The Top 10 Low Beta Stocks
- #10: Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)
- #9: Merck & Co. (MRK)
- #8: Exxon Mobil (XOM)
- #7: Occidental Petroleum (OXY)
- #6: Allstate (ALL)
- #5: Lockheed Martin (LMT)
- #4: ConocoPhillips (COP)
- #3: Hershey (HSY)
- #2: General Mills (GIS)
- #1: Northrop Grumman (NOC)
- Final Thoughts
The Evidence for Low Beta Stocks Outperformance
Beta is helpful in understanding the overall price risk level for investors during market downturns in particular. The lower the Beta value, the less volatility the stock or portfolio should exhibit against the benchmark.
This is beneficial for investors for obvious reasons, particularly those that are close to or already in retirement, as drawdowns should be relatively limited against the benchmark.
Importantly, low or high Beta simply measures the size of the moves a security makes; it does not mean necessarily that the price of the security stays nearly constant.
Securities can be low Beta and still be caught in long-term downtrends, so this is simply one more tool investors can use when building a portfolio.
The conventional wisdom would suggest that lower Beta stocks should underperform the broader markets during uptrends and outperform during downtrends, offering investors lower prospective returns in exchange for lower risk.
However, history would suggest that simply isn’t the case.
Indeed, this paper from Harvard Business School suggests that not only do low Beta stocks not underperform the broader market over time – including all market conditions – they actually outperform.
A long-term study wherein the stocks with the lowest 30% of Beta scores in the US were pitted against stocks with the highest 30% of Beta scores suggested that low Beta stocks outperform by several percentage points annually.
Over time, this sort of outperformance can mean the difference between a comfortable retirement and having to continue working.
While low Beta stocks aren’t a panacea, the case for their outperformance over time – and with lower risk – is quite compelling.
How To Calculate Beta
The formula to calculate a security’s Beta is fairly straightforward. The result, expressed as a number, shows the security’s tendency to move with the benchmark.
For example, a Beta value of 1.0 means that the security in question should move in lockstep with the benchmark. A Beta of 2.0 means that moves in the security should be twice as large in magnitude as the benchmark and in the same direction, while a negative Beta means that movements in the security and benchmark tend to move in opposite directions or are negatively correlated.
In other words, negatively correlated securities would be expected to rise when the overall market falls, or vice versa. A small value of Beta (something less than 1.0) indicates a stock that moves in the same direction as the benchmark, but with smaller relative changes.
Here’s a look at the formula:
The numerator is the covariance of the asset in question with the market, while the denominator is the variance of the market. These complicated-sounding variables aren’t actually that difficult to compute – especially in Excel.
Additionally, Beta can also be calculated as the correlation coefficient of the security in question and the market, multiplied by the security’s standard deviation divided by the market’s standard deviation.
Finally, there’s a greatly simplified way to calculate Beta by manipulating the capital asset pricing model formula (more on Beta and the capital asset pricing model later in this article).
Here’s an example of the data you’ll need to calculate Beta:
- Risk-free rate (typically Treasuries at least two years out)
- Your asset’s rate of return over some period (typically one year to five years)
- Your benchmark’s rate of return over the same period as the asset
To show how to use these variables to do the calculation of Beta, we’ll assume a risk-free rate of 2%, our stock’s rate of return of 7% and the benchmark’s rate of return of 8%.
You start by subtracting the risk-free rate of return from both the security in question and the benchmark. In this case, our asset’s rate of return net of the risk-free rate would be 5% (7% – 2%).
The same calculation for the benchmark would yield 6% (8% – 2%).
These two numbers – 5% and 6%, respectively – are the numerator and denominator for the Beta formula. Five divided by six yields a value of 0.83, and that is the Beta for this hypothetical security.
On average, we’d expect an asset with this Beta value to be 83% as volatile as the benchmark.
Thinking about it another way, this asset should be about 17% less volatile than the benchmark while still having its expected returns correlated in the same direction.
Beta & The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
The Capital Asset Pricing Model, or CAPM, is a common investing formula that utilizes the Beta calculation to account for the time value of money as well as the risk-adjusted returns expected for a particular asset.
Beta is an essential component of the CAPM because without it, riskier securities would appear more favorable to prospective investors. Their risk wouldn’t be accounted for in the calculation.
The CAPM formula is as follows:
The variables are defined as:
- ERi = Expected return of investment
- Rf = Risk-free rate
- βi = Beta of the investment
- ERm = Expected return of market
The risk-free rate is the same as in the Beta formula, while the Beta that you’ve already calculated is simply placed into the CAPM formula. The expected return of the market (or benchmark) is placed into the parentheses with the market risk premium, which is also from the Beta formula. This is the expected benchmark’s return minus the risk-free rate.
To continue our example, here is how the CAPM actually works:
ER = 2% + 0.83(8% – 2%)
In this case, our security has an expected return of 6.98% against an expected benchmark return of 8%. That may be okay depending upon the investor’s goals as the security in question should experience less volatility than the market thanks to its Beta of less than 1.
While the CAPM certainly isn’t perfect, it is relatively easy to calculate and gives investors a means of comparison between two investment alternatives.
Now, we’ll take a look at ten stocks that not only offer investors low Beta scores, but attractive prospective returns as well.
Analysis On The Top 10 Low Beta Stocks
The following 10 dividend-paying stocks have the lowest Beta values among the securities that we currently cover in the Sure Analysis Research Database. They are presented from the highest Beta to the lowest Beta, so the lowest-Beta stock is ranked #1.
Beta values were provided separately for this update. Dividend yields and Dividend Risk Scores are from the Sure Analysis Research Database.
10. Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY)
- Beta: 0.22
- Dividend Yield: 3.9%
- Dividend Risk Score: C
Bristol Myers Squibb is a global biopharmaceutical company with major franchises in oncology, hematology, cardiovascular medicine, and immunology.
Its portfolio includes Eliquis, Opdivo, Reblozyl, Camzyos, and newer launches such as Cobasert, while older products, including Revlimid, are losing sales to generic competition.
In the second quarter of 2026, revenue increased 5.7% to $13.0 billion and adjusted earnings-per-share rose to $2.04 from $1.46.
Eliquis sales climbed 22% to $4.5 billion, Reblozyl advanced 29% to $593 million, and Camzyos grew 60% to $310 million.
These gains more than offset a 49% decline in Revlimid.
Management consequently raised its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share guidance to $6.75–$7.00.
The investment case increasingly depends on the newer portfolio replacing products facing patent erosion.
The July acceptance of Bristol Myers’ mezigdomide application added another potential driver of multiple myeloma growth, while Cobenfy continues to expand beyond its initial schizophrenia launch through additional clinical studies.
The quarterly dividend is $0.63 per share, equal to $2.52 annually, and Bristol Myers has raised its dividend for 19 consecutive years.
Its C Dividend Risk Score is better than most names in this ranking, although you should continue monitoring the pace of legacy-product declines and pipeline execution.
9. Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
- Beta: 0.21
- Dividend Yield: 2.5%
- Dividend Risk Score: F
Merck is a diversified pharmaceutical company led by the Keytruda oncology franchise, with additional growth platforms in vaccines, cardiopulmonary medicine, and animal health.
Keytruda remains the central earnings engine, but management is investing heavily to broaden the portfolio before its principal U.S. patent protection begins to expire later this decade.
Second-quarter 2026 sales increased 5% to $16.61 billion.
Combined Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex sales grew 5% to $8.37 billion.
That included an especially strong $463 million contribution from the newer subcutaneous Qlex formulation.
Gardasil returned to growth, rising 3% to $1.17 billion, while Winrevair sales increased 75% to $588 million.
Merck reported an adjusted loss of $0.13 per share because of a large acquisition charge.
However, the operating performance was stronger than expected.
The company raised its full-year sales outlook to $66.3–$67.3 billion.
Merck completed its $6.7 billion acquisition of Terns Pharmaceuticals to add the leukemia candidate TERN-701, one of several investments intended to reduce future reliance on Keytruda.
The $0.85 quarterly dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
However, acquisition-related charges currently distort reported coverage and contribute to the F Dividend Risk Score, making pipeline productivity and cash-flow conversion important items to watch.
Deep Dive: Click here to download (for free) our most recent 3-Page Sure Analysis PDF report on Merck & Co. (MRK).
8. Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
- Beta: 0.17
- Dividend Yield: 2.6%
- Dividend Risk Score: D
Exxon Mobil is an integrated energy major with upstream oil and gas production, refining, chemicals, and specialty products.
The Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition substantially expanded its low-cost Permian position, while Guyana remains another important source of long-lived, high-return production growth.
Exxon reported second-quarter 2026 earnings-per-share of $3.52, up 68% sequentially as higher oil prices outweighed a 2% production decline.
Production was disrupted by the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the company’s diversified asset base and downstream operations provided useful resilience.
Management still intends to repurchase $20 billion of stock during 2026, following $69 billion of repurchases from 2022 through 2025.
The long-term plan centers on increasing Permian production to roughly 2.0 million barrels per day by 2027, advancing additional Guyana developments, and lowering the portfolio’s overall breakeven cost.
Those projects strengthen Exxon’s ability to fund investment and shareholder returns through a normal commodity cycle, although earnings remain tied to energy prices.
Exxon pays a $1.03 quarterly dividend and has raised its annual dividend for 43 consecutive years, one of the longest records in the energy sector.
The D Dividend Risk Score reflects that cyclicality and modest dividend growth prospects, despite the low 0.17 share-price Beta and the company’s strong balance sheet.
Deep Dive: Click here to download (for free) our most recent 3-Page Sure Analysis PDF report on Exxon Mobil (XOM).
7. Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)
- Beta: 0.16
- Dividend Yield: 1.8%
- Dividend Risk Score: F
Occidental Petroleum is an oil and gas producer with major operations in the Permian Basin and additional assets in the Middle East and North Africa.
The company also participates in midstream infrastructure and carbon-management projects.
However, its near-term earnings remain primarily driven by commodity prices and production volumes.
Second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share reached $2.40, comfortably above expectations and the company’s strongest quarterly profit since 2022.
Total production increased 2.4% to 1.43 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with U.S. strength offsetting a 12% decline in international output amid regional disruptions.
Occidental narrowed its full-year production range and reduced expected 2026 capital spending to $5.5–$5.9 billion from $6.3–$6.7 billion, preserving cash while uncertainty remains elevated.
The completed $9.7 billion sale of OxyChem to Berkshire Hathaway materially accelerated debt reduction and simplified the company around oil, gas, and low-carbon activities.
Richard Jackson also became chief executive officer on June 1, succeeding Vicki Hollub, so capital discipline under the new leadership team will be an important development.
Occidental pays a $0.26 quarterly dividend and has increased it for five consecutive years following the severe 2020 reduction.
That recent history, leverage, and commodity exposure explain the F Dividend Risk Score even though the stock’s measured Beta is only 0.16.
6. The Allstate Corporation (ALL)
- Beta: 0.15
- Dividend Yield: 1.7%
- Dividend Risk Score: D
Allstate is one of the largest U.S. personal-lines insurers, offering auto, homeowners, and related protection products through the Allstate and Encompass brands.
Its results depend on disciplined pricing, claims trends, catastrophe losses, and investment income earned on the insurance float.
Second-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue rose 11.8% to $18.6 billion, while property-liability earned premiums increased 4% to $14.9 billion.
Adjusted earnings-per-share climbed 51% to $8.99 even though catastrophe losses remained substantial at $1.7 billion,
Importantly, those losses were 14% below the prior-year period.
Total policies in force grew 3.8% to 215.9 million, and book value per share increased 50% to $123.38.
Allstate’s Transformative Growth program is combining more competitive pricing with broader digital distribution and improved underwriting analytics.
The company also completed a $1.5 billion repurchase authorization in the first half of 2026 and had approximately $2.6 billion remaining under its current program, providing another potential per-share earnings tailwind.
The quarterly dividend is $1.08, up from $1.00 in 2025, and the company has now increased its payout for 13 consecutive years.
Its D Dividend Risk Score reflects the inherent volatility of catastrophe exposure and the weaker recession record, despite the low payout ratio and very low stock Beta.
Deep Dive: Click here to download (for free) our most recent 3-Page Sure Analysis PDF report on Allstate (ALL).
5. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
- Beta: 0.12
- Dividend Yield: 2.3%
- Dividend Risk Score: B
Lockheed Martin is the world’s largest defense contractor.
Its four segments—Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space—include the F-35, Sikorsky helicopters, missile-defense systems, and strategic space programs.
Long production cycles and government contracts make revenue relatively visible.
Second-quarter 2026 sales increased 11% to $20.1 billion, with growth in every segment.
Diluted earnings-per-share rose to $7.94 from $1.46 in a comparison affected by prior-year program charges.
Cash from operations was $3.2 billion and free cash flow reached $2.9 billion.
New awards totaled roughly $65 billion, lifting backlog to a record $230 billion, helped by a multiyear THAAD interceptor contract.
Management raised its 2026 outlook to sales of $79.75–$81.75 billion and earnings-per-share of $29.95–$30.65.
Demand for air and missile defense, munitions, and F-35 sustainment supports the longer-term outlook, while the proposed Ultra Maritime acquisition would deepen Lockheed’s undersea-warfare capabilities.
Program execution and cost control remain the principal risks.
The company pays a $3.45 quarterly dividend and has increased its dividend for 23 consecutive years.
A moderate payout ratio, substantial backlog, and durable customer relationships support the B Dividend Risk Score, the best tier represented in this low-Beta ranking.
Deep Dive: Click here to download (for free) our most recent 3-Page Sure Analysis PDF report on Lockheed Martin (LMT).
4. ConocoPhillips (COP)
- Beta: 0.12
- Dividend Yield: 2.7%
- Dividend Risk Score: F
ConocoPhillips is the world’s largest independent exploration-and-production company, with a broad portfolio spanning U.S. shale, Alaska, Canada, Europe, Asia, and LNG projects.
The Marathon Oil acquisition expanded its Lower 48 resource base and created meaningful operating synergies.
However, earnings remain sensitive to oil and natural-gas prices.
In the second quarter of 2026, ConocoPhillips earned $3.9 billion, or $3.23 per share, while adjusted earnings-per-share of $3.24 exceeded expectations.
Higher realized commodity prices drove the improvement even as production declined to approximately 2.25 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Management reaffirmed its full-year production outlook and guided third-quarter output to 2.29–2.32 million barrels per day.
Andy O’Brien will become chief executive officer on September 1, with longtime CEO Ryan Lance moving to executive chairman.
The transition comes as ConocoPhillips executes several capital-intensive projects, most notably Willow in Alaska.
Willow’s estimated cost has risen to as much as $9 billion, but the project is central to management’s plan to add $7 billion of free cash flow by 2029.
The $0.84 quarterly dividend has increased for nine consecutive years.
Still, the F Dividend Risk Score reflects commodity exposure, heavy project spending, and the company’s past dividend reduction, showing why low Beta and dividend safety must be evaluated separately.
Deep Dive: Click here to download (for free) our most recent 3-Page Sure Analysis PDF report on ConocoPhillips (COP).
3. The Hershey Company (HSY)
- Beta: 0.11
- Dividend Yield: 3.1%
- Dividend Risk Score: F
Hershey is a leading North American confectionery and snacks company whose brands include Hershey’s, Reese’s, Kisses, Kit Kat, SkinnyPop, Dot’s Pretzels, and LesserEvil.
Its dominant candy portfolio provides strong brand equity, while salty and better-for-you snacks offer additional avenues for growth.
Second-quarter 2026 net sales increased 6.6% to $2.79 billion, and organic constant-currency sales rose 3.6%.
Adjusted earnings-per-share advanced 57% to $1.90. Pricing contributed about 12 percentage points to organic growth, but volume declined about 8 points as consumers reacted to higher prices.
Encouragingly, adjusted gross margin expanded 350 basis points to 41.6% as pricing, lower net commodity costs, and productivity savings outweighed logistics and mix pressure.
Hershey narrowed its full-year outlook to sales growth of 4.5%–5% and adjusted earnings-per-share growth of 32.5%–35%.
The new ONE Hershey model brings sweet, salty, and protein brands under a unified U.S. commercial organization, while LesserEvil contributed nearly all of the 22.9% sales growth in Salty Snacks during the quarter.
The board maintained the $1.452 quarterly dividend, marking Hershey’s 386th consecutive regular common dividend.
However, the current dividend-growth streak is only one year, as diviedend growth paused in 2025.
Elevated cocoa costs, price elasticity, and a higher payout ratio also contribute to the F Dividend Risk Score.
Deep Dive: Click here to download (for free) our most recent 3-Page Sure Analysis PDF report on Hershey (HSY).
2. General Mills, Inc. (GIS)
- Beta: -0.03
- Dividend Yield: 6.3%
- Dividend Risk Score: F
General Mills is a packaged-food company with brands including Cheerios, Nature Valley, Blue Buffalo, Pillsbury, Old El Paso, and Häagen-Dazs.
Its products are generally defensive, but weak consumer demand, portfolio reshaping, and heavier promotional activity have pressured recent sales and earnings.
Fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 sales increased 1% to $4.6 billion, while organic sales were flat.
Adjusted operating profit rose 13% in constant currency and adjusted earnings-per-share increased 27% to $0.95.
Full-year results were more difficult: net sales fell 5% to $18.4 billion and adjusted earnings-per-share declined 16% to $3.55.
For fiscal 2027, management expects organic sales to range from a 1.5% decline to 0.5% growth and adjusted earnings-per-share of $3.00–$3.20.
To restore profitability, General Mills is targeting $3 billion of cumulative savings through fiscal 2030, including at least $750 million in fiscal 2027.
The planned sale of its Brazil business is another step in simplifying the portfolio, although it triggered a large non-cash valuation loss.
The quarterly dividend remains $0.61, and General Mills has paid dividends without interruption for 127 years while raising the payout for six consecutive years.
Even so, the 6.3% yield, high payout ratio, and pressured earnings outlook explain the F Dividend Risk Score and warrant close attention to cash-flow coverage.
Deep Dive: Click here to download (for free) our most recent 3-Page Sure Analysis PDF report on General Mills (GIS).
1. Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC)
- Beta: -0.10
- Dividend Yield: 1.7%
- Dividend Risk Score: B
Northrop Grumman is a leading aerospace and defense contractor with operations in Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems.
Its portfolio includes the B-21 bomber, Sentinel missile program, advanced sensors, missile defense, and classified systems that require specialized technical capabilities and long customer relationships.
Second-quarter 2026 sales increased 5% to $10.88 billion, with growth across all four segments.
Diluted earnings-per-share declined 6% to $7.68 because the prior-year period included a divestiture gain and the latest quarter contained lower margins and program charges.
Northrop nevertheless secured $20 billion of net awards, lifting backlog to a record $104.7 billion.
Management raised 2026 guidance to sales of $43.75–$44.25 billion and adjusted earnings-per-share of $28.60–$29.10.
The B-21, Sentinel, F-35 content, and missile-defense programs should support long-duration growth, though execution matters because fixed-price development charges can pressure margins.
The company raised its quarterly dividend from $2.31 to $2.47 in May, marking its 23rd consecutive annual increase.
A roughly 34% expected payout ratio, strong backlog, and entrenched competitive position support the B Dividend Risk Score.
Combined with the list’s lowest Beta of -0.10, Northrop offers an unusual mix of low historical price correlation, visible defense demand, and a well-established dividend-growth record.
Deep Dive: Click here to download (for free) our most recent 3-Page Sure Analysis PDF report on Northrop Grumman (NOC).
Final Thoughts
Low Beta can be a useful starting point for finding stocks that have historically moved less than the broader market.
However, this ranking also shows why Beta should never be treated as a complete measure of risk.
Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin combine very low Betas with B Dividend Risk Scores and long dividend-growth records, while several consumer, pharmaceutical, and energy names carry F scores despite similarly subdued share-price volatility.
The ten stocks also provide exposure to very different economic drivers, from defense backlogs and patented medicines to food brands, insurance underwriting, and commodity prices.
General Mills and Bristol Myers offer the highest yields in the group, whereas Northrop and Allstate provide lower current income but stronger recent dividend growth.
The key takeaway is that Beta describes how a stock has traded; payout coverage, balance-sheet strength, earnings durability, and valuation determine whether that lower volatility is supported by a sound investment case.
Additional Reading
At Sure Dividend, we often advocate for investing in companies with a high probability of increasing their dividends each and every year.
If that strategy appeals to you, it may be useful to browse through the following databases of dividend growth stocks:
- The Dividend Aristocrats List: dividend stocks with 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases
- The Dividend Kings List is even more exclusive than the Dividend Aristocrats. It is comprised of 58 stocks with 50+ years of consecutive dividend increases.
- The High Dividend Stocks List: stocks that appeal to investors interested in the highest yields of 4% or more.
- The Monthly Dividend Stocks List: stocks that pay dividends every month, for 12 dividend payments per year.
- The Dividend Champions List: stocks that have increased their dividends for 25+ consecutive years.
Note: Not all Dividend Champions are Dividend Aristocrats because Dividend Aristocrats have additional requirements like being in The S&P 500.












