Sure Dividend

High-Quality Dividend Stocks, Long-Term Plan
Member's Area

Dividend Kings In Focus: Procter & Gamble


Updated on October 23rd, 2024 by Felix Martinez

The Dividend Kings are widely known as a group of dividend growth stocks to buy and hold for the long-term.

These companies have generated strong profits year after year, even during recessions, and have proved their ability to grow earnings steadily over many years. The Dividend Kings are a group of companies with 50+ consecutive years of dividend increases.

You can see all 53 Dividend Kings here.

You can also download an Excel spreadsheet with the full list of Dividend Kings (plus metrics that matter, such as price-to-earnings ratios and dividend yields) by clicking the link below:

 

Up next in our annual Dividend Kings In Focus series is consumer products behemoth Procter & Gamble (PG), which has paid dividends for 133 years and grown its dividend for 68 consecutive years.

Procter & Gamble is one of the best-known dividend stocks, largely due to its extremely long dividend history and widely recognizable brands.

Years ago, P&G completed a major overhaul of its product portfolio, including a significant divestment of brands no longer deemed necessary.

This article will discuss P&G’s portfolio transformation, future growth prospects, and stock valuation.

Business Overview

Procter & Gamble is a consumer products giant that sells its products in more than 180 countries and generates roughly $82 billion in annual sales. Its core brands include Gillette, Tide, Charmin, Crest, Pampers, Febreze, Head & Shoulders, Bounty, Oral-B, and many more.

During P&G’s massive portfolio restructuring over the past few years, the company sold off dozens of its consumer brands.

Asset sales in recent years include battery brand Duracell to Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A) (BRK-B) for $4.7 billion and a collection of 43 beauty brands to Coty (COTY) for $12.5 billion.

Today, P&G has slimmed down to just 65 brands, from 170 previously. And these brands have been gaining global market share at a healthy rate over the past few years.

Source: Investor Presentation 

The company operates in five reporting segments based on the following product categories:

Growth Prospects

Following P&G’s restructuring, the company is now a more agile and flexible organization with improved growth prospects. While P&G divested low-margin businesses with limited growth potential, it held on to its core consumer brands, such as Tide, Charmin, Pampers, Gillette, and Crest, which have strong growth potential.

In addition, P&G received billions of dollars from its numerous asset sales and spent a portion of the proceeds on share repurchases. These share repurchases have contributed to the growth of earnings per share over time.

Margin expansion is a major component of P&G’s earnings growth strategy. P&G’s cost-cutting efforts have enhanced its operating margins and after-tax profit margins. Thanks to its strong brands, P&G has the ability to raise prices even in an inflationary environment. It has thus implemented multiple price hikes over the last two years, offsetting the negative effect of cost inflation on its margins.

As part of the restructuring, P&G launched a massive cost-cutting effort. Through headcount reduction and lower SG&A expenses, it cut costs by $10 billion over the course of the restructuring.

At the same time, the focus on premier brands with pricing power has resulted in consistent sales growth:

Source: Investor Presentation

The company reported its fiscal year 2025 first-quarter results, showing net sales of $21.7 billion, a 1% decline from the previous year. However, organic sales, which exclude foreign exchange and acquisition impacts, increased by 2%. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) dropped 12% to $1.61 due to higher restructuring charges, while core EPS rose 5% to $1.93. Operating cash flow stood at $4.3 billion, and the company returned $4.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.

Segment performance varied across P&G’s product categories. Beauty segment sales fell 2% due to volume declines in China, while grooming and healthcare saw organic sales growth of 3% and 4%, respectively. Fabric and Home Care grew by 3%, and Baby, Feminine, and Family Care sales remained flat. The company also faced currency exchange and commodity cost challenges, partially offset by productivity gains.

Looking ahead, P&G maintained its guidance for fiscal 2025, expecting all-in sales growth of 2% to 4%, organic sales growth of 3% to 5%, and core EPS growth of 5% to 7%. P&G anticipates continued headwinds from commodity costs and foreign exchange, with expected adjusted free cash flow productivity around 90%. The company plans to return substantial capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.

We are forecasting 5% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next five years.

Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance

P&G has several competitive advantages. The first is its strong brand portfolio, which includes several brands with annual sales in excess of $1 billion.

These and other core brands also hold leadership positions in their respective categories. These products are associated with high quality, and hence, consumers are willing to pay a premium for them.

The company invests heavily in advertising to retain its competitive position, which it can do thanks to its financial strength. It also invests heavily in research and development. This investment is a competitive advantage for P&G; R&D fuels product innovation, while advertising helps market new products and gain share.

P&G’s competitive advantages allow the company to remain profitable even during periods of recession. Earnings held up remarkably well during the Great Recession:

As is evident from the above, P&G had a very strong year in 2008, with nearly 20% earnings growth. Earnings dipped only mildly in the following two years. This was a strong performance in one of the worst economic downturns in the past several decades.

P&G also performed very well in 2020, as consumers still needed personal care and household products during the coronavirus pandemic. The consumer products giant grew its earnings per share by 13% in 2020 to a new all-time high, and it has since been increasing.

Overall, P&G’s business model is recession-resistant. Everyone needs paper towels, toothpaste, razors, and other P&G products, regardless of the economic climate.

Valuation & Expected Returns

Based on our expectation of earnings per share of $6.98 for fiscal 2025, P&G is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 24.3.

Our fair value estimate for P&G is a price-to-earnings ratio of 20. As such, shares appear overvalued. If the price-to-earnings ratio of P&G reverts to 20.0 over the next five years, the stock will incur a -4.0% annualized valuation headwind.

Earnings growth and dividends will help offset the impact of a contracting price-to-earnings multiple. For example, we expect P&G to generate 5.0% annual earnings growth each year, and the stock has a current dividend yield of 2.4%. Given all these figures, the stock has a total return potential of 3.4% per year over the next five years.

That said, P&G continues to appeal as a dividend growth stock. The current dividend payout is well-covered by earnings, as evidenced by a healthy payout ratio of 58%, and hence, the dividend has ample room to keep growing.

Investors should expect P&G to continue raising its dividend yearly for many years. It has the brand strength, competitive advantages, and profitability to maintain its steady annual dividend raises over the long term.

Final Thoughts

P&G has many strong qualities that make it a time-tested dividend growth company. Thanks to a significant reshuffling of its brand portfolio years ago, P&G positioned itself to capitalize on global growth opportunities.

P&G has a long history of rewarding shareholders with dividends. Because of its long history of annual dividend hikes, P&G has earned a place on our list of “blue chip” stocks.

You can see the full list of blue chip stocks here.

However, the current valuation leaves something to be desired from a value perspective. While we remain enthused about the ongoing growth of the business, we do not find shares to be attractive enough to buy at this time.

The following articles contain stocks with very long dividend or corporate histories, ripe for selection for dividend growth investors:

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to support@suredividend.com.