Updated on October 21st, 2021 by Bob Ciura
ABM Industries (ABM) has an amazing track record when it comes to paying dividends to shareholders. ABM is part of the Dividend Kings, a group of stocks that have raised their payouts for at least 50 consecutive years. You can see all 32 Dividend Kings here.
We created a full list of all 32 Dividend Kings, along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields, payout ratios, and price-to-earnings ratios. You can download the full list by clicking on the link below:
Dividend Kings are the best of the best when it comes to rewarding shareholders with cash and this article will discuss ABM’s dividend safety, as well as its valuation and outlook.
ABM was founded back in 1909 and since that time, it has grown into an industry powerhouse. ABM Industries is a leading provider of facility solutions, which includes janitorial, electrical & lighting, energy solutions, facilities engineering, HVAC & mechanical, landscape & turf, and parking.
ABM counts hospitals, universities, public schools, data centers, manufacturing plants, airports and others among its long and impressive client list.
Source: Investor Presentation
The company’s expertise and many decades of experience in facility management has earned it a terrific reputation and thus it is a true industry leader. ABM Industries is headquartered in New York, NY, and is currently trading with a market capitalization above $3 billion.
ABM’s strategy is to compete in industries where it can win and that selection of customer bases is what you see above; ABM has learned through the decades where it can compete successfully and where it cannot and has focused its efforts accordingly.
In 2007 ABM’s annual revenue was about $3B, but it has more than doubled since then, currently standing at ~$6.5 billion. ABM has grown organically in part but the vast majority of its growth has been purchased. And given strategic direction from ABM in terms of future cash usage, we can expect more acquisitions as the years go on.
ABM also has an exceptional dividend growth record. The company has paid 221 consecutive quarterly dividend, and has increased its dividend for more than 50 consecutive years.
Source: Investor Presentation
Given the remarkably low payout ratio of ~22% projected for 2021, its long-term growth prospects and its resilience to recessions, ABM is likely to keep raising its dividend for several more years.
One source of potential earnings growth going forward is international expansion as ABM entered the U.K. market with the GBM and Westway acquisitions in the past few years. Going forward, continue to look for lots of transactions from ABM in terms of both acquisitions and divestitures as it shifts its mix around further.
ABM is split into six segments that provide a wide array of facility solutions to its customers: Business & Industry, Education, Aviation, Technology & Manufacturing, Healthcare, and Technical Solutions. The company’s revenue streams are highly diversified, with janitorial services comprising the biggest single piece of the pie for ABM.
ABM’s stated strategy is to grow by acquisition, as we saw above. That’s not to say that it is ignoring its ability to grow organically, however. When it has free cash flow to spend, it looks first at organic growth. The company has deep expertise and a great reputation here in the US for facilities management and looks to exploit that where possible. That means going after national accounts first where it can gain a significant amount of business all at once as well as centralizing support services to improve margins.
ABM also specifically calls out acquisitions in its strategy, although it is behind organic investments and the dividend. Still, ABM’s recent history suggests that acquisitions are a very important part of its overall strategy and thus, we can expect ABM will continue to grow via acquisitions as well as organically.
ABM is still extremely focused on the US market and that presents potential opportunities for further international expansion. ABM could use its significant expertise in facilities management to gain access to global clients around the world. The moves into the U.K. in recent years prove ABM is willing to take a chance and this may be the most significant growth avenue ABM has going forward.
The company’s financial results have improved in 2021, alongside the recovery in the broader economy from the downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic. In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 11% versus
the previous year’s quarter.
Earnings–per–share of $0.90 during the third quarter beat the analyst consensus easily, by $0.09. ABM Industries’ earnings–per–share grew by a strong 20% versus the previous year’s quarter.
ABM Industries has announced that it will acquire janitorial services and engineering company Able Services in a deal that values the target at $900 million. Management indicated that this transaction will be immediately accretive to earnings–per–share.
It is expected that ABM Industries will be highly profitable this year, and management has increased its earnings–per–share guidance to $3.45 to $3.55.
Overall, however, ABM’s growth is likely to be moderate as the economy normalizes. We expect 5% annual earnings-per-share growth over the next five years.
Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance
ABM’s competitive advantage is its size and the resultant economies of scale it enjoys. It has a 100+ year history of providing facility solutions for a wide array of customers and that expertise is what sets ABM apart. It is a true industry leader in the facilities management space and that affords it not only the ability to more easily attract new clients, but also to expand relationships with the ones it already has.
In addition, since ABM operates in low-margin businesses, smaller competitors are at a disadvantage in terms of leveraging down back office and support costs. ABM may be in some competitive lines of work but it is certainly better positioned than its competitors to overcome some of those obstacles.
ABM Industries is one of the biggest companies in its industry, and its history of making acquisitions has enhanced its scale advantages further. It is likely that ABM Industries will continue to make acquisitions to increase its size further.
Recessions are painful for ABM just like any other company, but its performance during the Great Recession was remarkable. ABM’s earnings-per-share during the Great Recession are below:
- 2007 earnings-per-share of $0.99
- 2008 earnings-per-share of $1.10 (11% increase)
- 2009 earnings-per-share of $1.33 (21% increase)
- 2010 earnings-per-share of $1.34 (0.7% increase)
Impressively, ABM grew earnings-per-share in each year of the Great Recession. Very few companies were able to accomplish this. Moreover, ABM has proved once again its resilient nature in the coronavirus pandemic.
Thanks to an increase in high-margin work orders from resilient customers, ABM has easily offset the effect of the pandemic on its customers in the aviation industry and education. As a result, it is poised to grow its earnings per share to an all-time high level this year.
Overall, ABM enjoys thin operating margins and lackluster growth rates during normal economic times but it is exceptionally resilient during rough economic periods.
This resilience is very important, as it supports the long-term returns of the stock and makes it easier for the shareholders to retain the stock during broad market sell-offs.
Valuation & Expected Returns
ABM is expected to generate record earnings-per-share of $3.50 in its fiscal 2021. As a result, the stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8. This is significantly lower than the average price-to-earnings ratio of ~17.5 for the stock in the past 10 years. We consider 17.5 to be a reasonable estimate of fair value for this stock.
That’s not a cheap valuation for a stock with low margins and low growth prospects, though the company has some long-term catalysts for earnings growth, including the low single digit rate of organic revenue growth mentioned earlier, as well as the margin improvement efforts ABM has already undertaken.
If the stock trades at our assumed fair valuation level in five years, it will generate 6.5% annualized returns thanks to the expansion of its earnings multiple.
Moreover, the stock is offering a 1.7% dividend yield. This yield is somewhat higher than the yield of the S&P 500 but it is still a low yield.
In addition, recent dividend raises have been very small, with typical increases in the 2% or 3% range. While ABM has an impressive history of paying dividends, it lacks both a high current yield and a high dividend growth rate.
Lastly, we expect annual EPS growth of 5.0% over the next five years. Combined with a 1.7% dividend and a 6.5% annualized expansion of the price-to-earnings ratio, total annual returns could approach 13.2% per year.
ABM is certainly not a high-yield income stock, nor is it a high dividend growth stock. But what it lacks in excitement, it makes up for with consistency. ABM’s long and impressive history of paying a dividend should be respected, as the Dividend Kings are rare in comparison to the thousands of publicly-traded stocks in the market.
ABM’s organic growth is intact, and acquisitions add to growth. Growth from here depends upon potential international expansion as well as continued margin gains.
With a reasonable valuation and growth up ahead, total annual returns could be strong at above 13% expected through the next five years. ABM is a buy, due to its high expected return, and long history of dividend increases.
Further Reading: The 10 Best Industrial Stocks Now.