Sure Dividend

High-Quality Dividend Stocks, Long-Term Plan
Member's Area

Dividend Kings In Focus: Illinois Tool Works


Updated on July 9th, 2025 by Felix Martinez

The Dividend Kings are a select group of 55 stocks that have increased their dividends for at least 50 consecutive years. We believe the Dividend Kings are among the highest-quality dividend growth stocks to buy and hold for the long term.

With this in mind, we created a full list of all 55 Dividend Kings. You can download the full list, along with important financial metrics such as dividend yields and price-to-earnings ratios, by clicking on the link below:

 

We individually review all the Dividend Kings each year. The next in the series is Illinois Tool Works (ITW).

Illinois Tool Works has increased its dividend for 61 consecutive years, which is especially impressive since it operates in a highly cyclical sector (industrials). This article will discuss the major reasons for Illinois Tool Works’ long dividend history.

Business Overview

Illinois Tool Works has been in operation for over 100 years. It began in 1902 when a financier named Byron Smith placed an advertisement in The Economist. At the time, Smith was looking to invest in a “high-class business (manufacturing preferred) in or near Chicago.” A group of inventors approached Smith with an idea to improve gear grinding, and Illinois Tool Works was born.

Illinois Tool Works generates an annual revenue of nearly $16 billion. It is composed of seven segments: automotive, food equipment, test and measurement, welding, polymers and fluids, construction products, and specialty products.

These segments have performed well compared to their peers, enabling Illinois Tool Works to achieve industry-leading margins.

Illinois Tool Works’ portfolio is concentrated in product segments that hold above-average growth potential in their respective markets. The company’s overarching strategic growth plan is to refine its business model as needed continually. The company frequently utilizes bolt-on acquisitions to expand its reach.

Growth Prospects

Inflation and rising interest rates pose a challenge to the macroeconomic environment for global industrial manufacturers. However, Illinois Tool Works continues to generate steady growth beyond 2025.

Illinois Tool Works Inc. reported Q1 2025 revenue of $3.8 billion, down 3.4% from $4.0 billion in Q1 2024, with organic revenue declining 1.6% (flat on an equal days’ basis) and a 1.8% foreign currency translation headwind. GAAP EPS fell 2% to $2.38 from $2.44 (adjusted for a $0.29 one-time inventory accounting benefit in 2024). Operating income was $951 million, with a 24.8% margin (down 60 basis points), supported by 120 basis points from enterprise initiatives but offset by higher restructuring costs. Operating cash flow was $592 million, and free cash flow was $496 million (71% conversion to net income). ITW repurchased $375 million in shares.
Segment performance showed mixed results: Automotive OEM revenue dropped 5.4% with a 19.3% margin; Food Equipment grew 2.5% with a 26.5% margin; Test & Measurement and Electronics fell 2.8% with a 21.4% margin; Welding declined 6.8% with a 32.5% margin; Polymers & Fluids decreased 4.2% with a 26.5% margin; Construction Products fell 2.8% with a 29.2% margin; and Specialty Products dropped 3.1% with a 30.9% margin. The company maintained its 2025 guidance, projecting EPS of $10.15–$10.55, flat to 2% organic growth, and a 26.5–27.5% operating margin, with pricing actions expected to offset tariff costs.
CEO Christopher O’Herlihy emphasized ITW’s resilience in a volatile environment, citing its “produce where we sell” strategy, decentralized culture, and diversified portfolio. The company’s focus on customer-driven innovation and enterprise initiatives positions it for above-market growth. ITW expects free cash flow to exceed 100% of net income and plans to repurchase $1.5 billion in shares, reflecting confidence in its financial strength and long-term strategy despite market uncertainties.

Source: Investor Presentation

Competitive Advantages & Recession Performance

Illinois Tool Works has a significant competitive advantage. Its wide economic “moat” refers to its ability to keep competition at bay. It achieves this through a massive intellectual property portfolio, which comprises more than 17,000 granted and pending patents.

At the same time, Illinois Tool Works has a decentralized, entrepreneurial corporate culture. This also sets the company apart from the competition. Illinois Tool Works empowers its various businesses with significant flexibility to customize their own approaches to serving customers in the best way possible.

One potential downside of Illinois Tool Works’ business model is that it is vulnerable to recessions. As an industrial manufacturer, Illinois Tool Works is reliant on a healthy global economy for growth.

Earnings-per-share performance during the Great Recession is below:

That said, the company remained highly profitable during the Great Recession. This allowed it to continue increasing its dividend each year during the recession, despite declining earnings. The company also recovered quickly. Earnings-per-share soared 57% in 2010. By 2011, earnings per share surpassed 2007 levels.

A similar pattern was observed in 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic led to an economic recession. Illinois Tool Works’ earnings per share declined in 2020, but the decline was manageable, and the company continued to raise its dividend.

Valuation & Expected Returns

Using the current share price of ~$257 and the midpoint for 2025 earnings guidance of $10.35 for the year, Illinois Tool Works trades for a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.8. Given the company’s cyclical nature, we feel a target price-to-earnings ratio of 22.3 is appropriate. This is roughly in line with the company’s 10-year historical average.

As a result, Illinois Tool Works could be overvalued. If the P/E multiple contracts from 24.8 to 22.3 over the next five years, it would reduce annual returns by 1.5% during this period.

Earnings growth and dividends will also drive future returns. We expect 9% annual earnings growth over the next five years. In addition, Illinois Tool Works stock has a current dividend yield of 2.3%.

The company has increased its dividend rapidly in the past decade.

Source: Investor Presentation

Putting it all together, Illinois Tool Works is expected to return 9.8% annually through 2030. As a result, we have a hold recommendation on Illinois Tool Works, though the company’s ability to raise dividends through multiple recessions is impressive.

Final Thoughts

Illinois Tool Works is a high-quality company with an even better dividend growth stock. Its strategic growth plan is working well, and shareholders have been rewarded with rising dividends for over 50 years.

The stock also has a decent 2.3% dividend yield, which could make it an appealing choice for long-term dividend growth investors. However, the current stock price’s overvaluation means that total returns are not high enough to warrant a buy recommendation from Sure Dividend.

Additional Reading

The following databases of stocks contain stocks with very long dividend or corporate histories, ripe for selection for dividend growth investors.

Thanks for reading this article. Please send any feedback, corrections, or questions to support@suredividend.com.